Tuesday, 31 July 2012

PYD/PKK what are they up to in Syrian Western Kurdistan

Turkey warns Assad that he must keep Kurds in check, or risk intervention

See http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Latest-News-Wires/2012/0727/Turkey-warns-Assad-that-he-must-keep-Kurds-in-check-or-risk-intervention

The problem is have these areas actually been liberated or are the PYD acting as caretakers for their masters in Syrian Intelligence while the Assad regime pulls its troops back to fight the FSA?

Now of course the PYD/PKK may be playing the long game, sign the Hewler agreements to form the Kurdish Supreme Council to keep the KRG off their backs, agree to occupy the Kurdish cities,bully the KNC parties out of the way, keep the FSA out in the name of Kurdish autonomy and await the result of the civil war.

If the Assad falls then they have de facto autonomy, as they say in English possession is 2/3rd of the law.

If the regime survives then the PKK continues to receive support and has won itself major points with a thankful Assad.

Also of course it may be an act of self-preservation by the PKK, an estimated third of the PKK’s cadre are Syrian Kurds, ‘encouraged’ by the Syrian regime to take their patriotic feelings else where. With what is going on in Syria they may be tempted to abandon the fight against Turkey and return home to take part in the future of a Syrian Kurdish entity.

On the other hand now is probably one of the worse times in recent history for a new Syrian kurdish entity to stick its head above the parapet. The tension between the KRG leadership and the central government in Iraq is rapidly reaching a point of no return.

The last thing Baghdad is in favour of is another autonomous Kurdish state.

Turkey, which is getting very excited about the potential topple of a long term regional opponent not least because it removes a key supporter of the PKK, is not going to tolerate a PYD overt presence for long. The Turks may hold their hand for as long as the UN continues to stick with a non-intervention strategy- however if the regime falls and the PYD stay then I think we can rapidly expect to see a PKK ‘atrocity’/attack that the Turks will claim came from a PKK armed section based in Western Kurdistan, and a rapid and painful military action to remove the PYD/PKK and replaced by KRG trained peshmerga. The images on the net of PYD armed cadre patrolling streets indicates, to me at least, that the PYD does not have much in the way of resources to fight anything but a guerilla campaign- no match for the forces that could be ranged against them.

Related Links

As Syrian Tensions Grow, Turks Put 100,000 Troops on Standby

A not impartial profile of the PYD

PYD Official: Kurdish Unity Will Not be Undermined by Turkey

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